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A study by Arizona State University professor Chris Herbst finds that, after New Mexico introduced universal free child care, lower-income mothers’ employment and work hours rose while higher-income mothers’ work declined. The study measures changes associated with the policy; it does not establish why each group changed its work patterns or show the program’s long-term effects.
A new analysis of New Mexico’s universal child care program found that lower-income mothers worked more after the policy took effect, while higher-income mothers reduced their work. Arizona State University professor Chris Herbst, who studies child care policy, said the results point to sharply different changes in families’ employment and time use under the state’s free-care program.
Herbst compared mothers’ labor outcomes in New Mexico before and after the program began, and against outcomes for mothers outside the state. His analysis used monthly U.S. Census Bureau data collected from May 2019 through August 2026. The source report describes the policy as having taken effect the previous November, but does not specify a calendar year for that date.
Among lower-income mothers, the study reports an 18% rise in labor-force participation and an 18% rise in employment after the policy. Full-time employment increased by 23%, and the number of hours mothers worked each week rose by 15%. The report presents these as changes associated with the policy; it does not give the underlying counts or further define the comparison used for each percentage.
For higher-income mothers, the study found labor-force participation declined by 8%, full-time work by 17%, and weekly hours by 10%. Herbst offered two possible explanations: some mothers may have cut back to spend more time with their children, while others may have reduced work to attend school. The analysis, as described in the report, does not determine which explanation applies to individual families.
Work Gains and Different Family Choices
The results suggest that the cost of care can limit employment, particularly for families with lower incomes. Herbst said the increase in work among those mothers indicates that, before the program, some could not find affordable care that made taking available jobs financially workable. Free care may have lowered that barrier, though the reported analysis does not establish every factor behind the changes.
The decline in work among higher-income mothers points to a different possible effect: access to care may give families more flexibility about how they allocate time. The state’s eligibility rules require adults in a household to work or take part in another qualifying activity, such as education, but do not set a minimum number of hours for those activities, according to the report. That may allow some parents to study or spend more time at home while retaining access to care.
Those contrasting patterns matter to policymakers weighing child care as both a family support and a workforce policy. The findings do not show that every family experienced the same result, nor do they establish whether increased employment will generate enough tax revenue to offset program costs.
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New Mexico as a U.S. Policy Test
New Mexico became the first state in the country to enact a universal child care program, according to the source report. Its adoption gives researchers an opportunity to study a broad free-care policy in the United States, where earlier evidence has largely come from other countries or from a different historical period.
Herbst compared the reported employment changes with research on Quebec’s universal, highly subsidized child care system, introduced in the late 1990s. That research found mothers’ labor-force participation rose 14.5% relative to its pre-policy level. Herbst cautioned that it is too early to know whether New Mexico’s program will produce similar fiscal effects; the source report says research on Quebec found that increased maternal work and tax payments more than paid for that program.
Herbst has also studied the Lanham Act, a federal program that supported subsidized child care centers during World War II so women could work. The report says New Mexico did not participate in that program. Research on Lanham Act centers has linked them to higher employment among women and later educational and economic gains for some children, but those findings concern a different policy and period and do not establish what will happen in New Mexico.
“Disadvantaged families can now afford to work.”
— Chris Herbst, as quoted by The 74
Questions the Study Cannot Yet Answer
The reported findings do not establish the reasons behind each family’s work decisions, or whether the policy alone caused the changes. The source does not provide the sample sizes, the detailed statistical methods, or the absolute number of mothers represented. It also does not identify the calendar year for the program’s November start date, despite describing the analysis as covering data through August 2026.
The report says longer-term effects on children’s development, education and earnings may take years to measure. It is also unknown whether the program will generate enough additional tax revenue to offset its costs, or whether the employment patterns will continue as the policy matures.
Longer-Term Outcomes Still Ahead
Herbst’s study offers an early look at how a statewide universal program may affect parents’ work, but tracking the results over time will be necessary to assess whether the changes persist. Future research could examine family earnings, education and program costs, as well as children’s development and later outcomes. The source report does not identify a date for the next study or a specific upcoming evaluation milestone.
Key Questions
What did the study find for lower-income mothers?
It reported 18% increases in labor-force participation and employment, a 23% increase in full-time employment and a 15% increase in weekly work hours after the policy took effect.
Did higher-income mothers also work more?
No. The analysis reported declines among higher-income mothers: labor-force participation fell by 8%, full-time work by 17% and weekly hours by 10%. Herbst suggested that some may have pursued education or spent more time at home, but the study does not establish individual reasons.
Does the study prove free child care caused the changes?
The study compares outcomes before and after the policy and with mothers outside New Mexico. The reported results are associated with the program, but the source does not provide enough methodological detail to say the policy alone caused every change.
Will the program pay for itself?
That is not yet known. Herbst said it is too early to tell whether New Mexico will see fiscal effects like those reported in research on Quebec’s child care program.
What is still unknown about effects on children?
The source report says possible effects on children’s development and long-term outcomes will take longer to study. It gives no results yet for New Mexico children’s educational or economic outcomes.
Source: rss
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